ERM Power - US outlook downgraded; Australia in line or better

ERM Power has issued a trading update that confirms its outlook for the Australian activities (in line or above for 2018 and in line for 2019) but downgrades the outlook for its US activities (slightly lower volumes and significantly lower gross margins). Our initial calculations suggest this could have a potential A$4m and A$13m negative effect on our 2018-19e net income forecasts respectively; we place our forecasts under review. Although the trading update for the US activities is disappointing, we see downside risks as limited for ERM Power as the US business is independently financed. Our valuation implies significant potential upside even if we attribute no value to the US activities.