Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p><strong>Thailand:&nbsp;Terrorist attack compounds already downgraded economic prospects</strong></p><ul><li>The deadly bomb attack on the Erawan shrine puts paid to tourism as an engine of recovery for at least a year. The economy had already decelerated further in 2Q15, with traditional growth engines faltering. Exports are compromised by weak global demand, agriculture is suffering from the worst drought in decades and consumers are struggling with high debt and low commodity prices.</li><li>The key question is how much of a turnaround there will be in 2016. The BOT will probably cut rates but monetary easing will have limited effect given that repeated rate cuts have proven ineffectual and could worsen the domestic debt overhang.</li><li>Thus, the turnaround must come from stepped up fiscal disbursement. Prime Minister Prayuth&rsquo;s Cabinet reshuffle strengthened the economic team. With more able technocrats in charge, budget disbursements will be accelerated to kick off the infrastructure projects which will then crowd in private investment, boosting growth.</li><li>The final risk is political: Key figures across the political spectrum have opposed the junta&rsquo;s draft charter and there are signs of factionalism within the military.</li></ul>

Thailand:&nbsp;Terrorist attack compounds already downgraded economic prospectsThe deadly bomb attack on the Erawan shrine puts paid to tourism as an engine of recovery for at least a year. The economy had already decelerated further in 2Q15, with traditional growth engines faltering. Exports are compromised by weak global demand, agriculture is suffering from the worst drought in decades and consumers are struggling with high debt and low commodity prices.The key question is how much of a turnaround there will be in 2016. The BOT will probably cut rates but monetary easing will have limited effect given that repeated rate cuts have proven ineffectual and could worsen the domestic debt overhang.Thus, the turnaround must come from stepped up fiscal disbursement. Prime Minister Prayuth&rsquo;s Cabinet reshuffle strengthened the economic team. With more able technocrats in charge, budget disbursements will be accelerated to kick off the infrastructure projects which will then crowd in private investment, boosting growth.The final risk is political: Key figures across the political spectrum have opposed the junta&rsquo;s draft charter and there are signs of factionalism within the military.

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF TB)

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund

Erawan bomb blast means Thailand's recovery postponed to 2016