European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Biffa Accepts Lowered Bid from Energy Capital Partners

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ECP offers 445p/share (37% premium, implied equity value is €1,361 million, implied EV is €1,939 million), subject to satisfactory due diligence. PUSU deadline is 5 July.</li>
<li>The offer represents 1.3x EV/Fwd revenue, <strong>8.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA</strong> and 28.4x Fwd P/E. Suez was taken at similar multiples: 1.5x, 8.1x and 27.4x respectively. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is 426p.</li>
<li>The equity value prior to approach was undemanding, and the shares are escaping the market sell-off. Gross spread as of 13 June is 8.9%. Recommendation is long BIFF LN.</li>
</ul>


ECP offers 445p/share (37% premium, implied equity value is €1,361 million, implied EV is €1,939 million), subject to satisfactory due diligence. PUSU deadline is 5 July.
The offer represents 1.3x EV/Fwd revenue, 8.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 28.4x Fwd P/E. Suez was taken at similar multiples: 1.5x, 8.1x and 27.4x respectively. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is 426p.
The equity value prior to approach was undemanding, and the shares are escaping the market sell-off. Gross spread as of 13 June is 8.9%. Recommendation is long BIFF LN.


Energy Capital Partners/Biffa: Takeover Approach