European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Edizione & KKR/​Atlantia: All Clearances Obtained

ACS/Hochtief/CIMIC: Rationalization of Holding Structure

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 14 April, a consortium led by Edizione launched a defensive delisting takeover bid for Atlantia for €23/share (which won’t be adjusted for the €0.74 dividend payable before end of acceptance).</li>
<li>The premium is 24.4% (before takeover rumors), and represents 8.9x EV/Fwd Revenue and 14.1x EV/Fwd EBITDA (Capital IQ consensus). The offer price is 16% higher than my SOTP valuation (€19.82/share).</li>
<li>It is almost a knock-out bid with minimal interloper risk. Gross spread to the aggregate amount is 4%, annualised return is 18% (assuming 13 July settlement). Recommendation is long ATL IM.</li>
</ul>


On 14 April, a consortium led by Edizione launched a defensive delisting takeover bid for Atlantia for €23/share (which won’t be adjusted for the €0.74 dividend payable before end of acceptance).
The premium is 24.4% (before takeover rumors), and represents 8.9x EV/Fwd Revenue and 14.1x EV/Fwd EBITDA (Capital IQ consensus). The offer price is 16% higher than my SOTP valuation (€19.82/share).
It is almost a knock-out bid with minimal interloper risk. Gross spread to the aggregate amount is 4%, annualised return is 18% (assuming 13 July settlement). Recommendation is long ATL IM.


Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: Defensive and Generous Takeout Offer

Atlantia SpA

Edizione & KKR/Atlantia: Defensive and Generous Takeout Offer