Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Steven Holden is the CEO and Founder of Copley Fund Research, an independent provider of research on equity fund positioning and performance.  Set up in 2014, Copley focuses on global, global emerging market, US, Asia Ex-Japan and China active equity funds, covering over $4tr in assets across 1300 active managers.  The company provides data and analysis on market trends, manager exposures and active fund performance to an audience of investment managers, pension funds and fund selectors worldwide.  Mr Holden’s 14-year investment banking career started in 2000, where he worked for Morgan Stanley as an equity derivative trader focused on emerging markets in London.  Following this, he spent 4 years at Citibank in London and Hong Kong as an Executive Director in derivative sales, focused again on emerging markets.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

GEM Fund Q1 2020 Performance Review: Active Funds Suffer as China Outperforms

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<p>In this analysis, we highlight the activity of Active managers around the period of the GFC between 2008 and 2009.  We find that managers aggressively moved from cyclicals to defensive through 2008, however quickly moved back in to cyclicals following the recovery in 2009.  The spread of cyclicals over defensives was at similar levels heading in to the COVID-19 crisis as it was just before the GFC. </p><p>This analysis takes on two parts.  Firstly, we screen our active fund universe for the preferred defensive sectors and provide a list of the favoured stocks within those sectors.  We would expect these to be the go to sectors during this period of uncertainty and likely global recession.  Secondly, we look for the preferred cyclical sectors and the stocks within those sectors.  When market conditions start improving, we expect these stocks to be aggressively bought as managers look to rebalance portfolios. </p>

In this analysis, we highlight the activity of Active managers around the period of the GFC between 2008 and 2009.  We find that managers aggressively moved from cyclicals to defensive through 2008, however quickly moved back in to cyclicals following the recovery in 2009.  The spread of cyclicals over defensives was at similar levels heading in to the COVID-19 crisis as it was just before the GFC. This analysis takes on two parts.  Firstly, we screen our active fund universe for the preferred defensive sectors and provide a list of the favoured stocks within those sectors.  We would expect these to be the go to sectors during this period of uncertainty and likely global recession.  Secondly, we look for the preferred cyclical sectors and the stocks within those sectors.  When market conditions start improving, we expect these stocks to be aggressively bought as managers look to rebalance portfolios. 

Echoes of 2008? Cyclicals Vs Defensives.  Most Favoured Sectors Among EM Active Funds.