Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

European Banks: Dividends in a Time of Crisis

Intesa Sanpaolo Offer for UBI Banca - Bold Step Towards Domestic Bank Consolidation

Italian Banks: Credit and Sovereign Bond Risks

Unicredit (UCG IM): A Name Worth Revisiting, Despite the Volatility and Uncertainty

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The ECB has ordered banks to freeze dividends and share buybacks, in an effort to retain banks' capital and bolster the lending capital base</li>
<li>We looked into the risk to dividends in last week's piece, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/european-banks-dividends-in-a-time-of-crisis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37845" rel="noopener">European Banks: Dividends in a Time of Crisis</a>, focusing on the risk to dividend cuts</li>
<li>Now, the dividend yield attraction will likely be absent for all 2020 and should only add to investors concerns regarding Eurozone banks, at least in the short term</li>
<li>Furthermore, such a move by the ECB could have the unintended consequence of potentially de-railing, or at least deferring, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intesa-sanpaolo-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21200:1" rel="noopener">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)</a> offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unione-di-banche-italiane-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21233:1" rel="noopener">Unione Di Banche Italiane (UBI IM)</a> thereby creating further downside risk to these shares</li>
<li>Risks to our view include that the current low PBV valuations in the Eurozone bank sector already discount much of the adverse prospects for the sector</li>
</ul>


The ECB has ordered banks to freeze dividends and share buybacks, in an effort to retain banks' capital and bolster the lending capital base
We looked into the risk to dividends in last week's piece, European Banks: Dividends in a Time of Crisis, focusing on the risk to dividend cuts
Now, the dividend yield attraction will likely be absent for all 2020 and should only add to investors concerns regarding Eurozone banks, at least in the short term
Furthermore, such a move by the ECB could have the unintended consequence of potentially de-railing, or at least deferring, the Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM) offer for Unione Di Banche Italiane (UBI IM) thereby creating further downside risk to these shares
Risks to our view include that the current low PBV valuations in the Eurozone bank sector already discount much of the adverse prospects for the sector


ECB Ruling on Dividends: Weaker Eurozone Banks in the Spotlight