Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Euro area inflation increased by another 0.3pp in November to 2.3% y-o-y. Headline surprises were small and balanced, but the resilience doesn’t fit dovish pricing.</li><li>Core and services price inflation rates were little changed at above-target levels. They will likely rise again in December and stay too high throughout 2025.</li><li>The ECB believes policy is tight and demand is too weak, allowing it to cut again in December. Gradualism is required to avoid over-easing amid ongoing data resilience.</li></ul><p></p>

Euro area inflation increased by another 0.3pp in November to 2.3% y-o-y. Headline surprises were small and balanced, but the resilience doesn’t fit dovish pricing.Core and services price inflation rates were little changed at above-target levels. They will likely rise again in December and stay too high throughout 2025.The ECB believes policy is tight and demand is too weak, allowing it to cut again in December. Gradualism is required to avoid over-easing amid ongoing data resilience.

ECB Gradualism Secured By Reflation