Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation undershot expectations for the third consecutive month by falling by 49bps to 2.41% in Nov-23. That is 0.3pp under the consensus and 16bps less than we expected.</li>
<li>The downward bias in outcomes since the Oct-22 peak is substantial, even if half of that merely invalidates consistently exaggerated expectations for positive payback.</li>
<li>Base effects from German energy utility support are set to break the downtrend in Dec-23. Underlying inflation isn’t below the target, so ECB cuts should wait until 3Q24.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation undershot expectations for the third consecutive month by falling by 49bps to 2.41% in Nov-23. That is 0.3pp under the consensus and 16bps less than we expected.
The downward bias in outcomes since the Oct-22 peak is substantial, even if half of that merely invalidates consistently exaggerated expectations for positive payback.
Base effects from German energy utility support are set to break the downtrend in Dec-23. Underlying inflation isn’t below the target, so ECB cuts should wait until 3Q24.


EA: Inflation Slumps Into Trough