Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Flash EA HICP inflation exceeded expectations again in Dec-21 by rising 10bps to 4.97%. There was a repeat of the upside pressure’s breadth that also infected the “core” .</li>
<li>Jumping beyond what we expected to be the peak does not change our view that it will slow sharply in Jan-22 on normalising seasonal weightings and a VAT base effect.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, the trend in surprises is uncomfortable for the ECB, which may not wait long in 2023 before it moves to hike rates</li>
</ul>


Flash EA HICP inflation exceeded expectations again in Dec-21 by rising 10bps to 4.97%. There was a repeat of the upside pressure’s breadth that also infected the “core” .
Jumping beyond what we expected to be the peak does not change our view that it will slow sharply in Jan-22 on normalising seasonal weightings and a VAT base effect.
Nonetheless, the trend in surprises is uncomfortable for the ECB, which may not wait long in 2023 before it moves to hike rates


EA: Inflation Jumps at the Dec-21 Summit