Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>EA inflation exceeded consensus expectations by 0.2pp as it increased to 2.6% y-o-y in July but was within 1bps of our forecast as our surprises were less and offsetting.</li><li>Further resilience in services inflation kept the core at 2.9%, demonstrating upside news in the less volatile areas more reflective of domestic conditions.</li><li>Forecasts for July have been trending higher, challenging the ECB narrative where stability permits cuts. September remains likely, but the cycle could be doused swiftly.</li></ul><p></p>

EA inflation exceeded consensus expectations by 0.2pp as it increased to 2.6% y-o-y in July but was within 1bps of our forecast as our surprises were less and offsetting.Further resilience in services inflation kept the core at 2.9%, demonstrating upside news in the less volatile areas more reflective of domestic conditions.Forecasts for July have been trending higher, challenging the ECB narrative where stability permits cuts. September remains likely, but the cycle could be doused swiftly.

EA: Inflation Drift Risks Drowning Cuts