Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Flash HICP as Flat as a Spring Pancake

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Flash inflation releases for January have exceeded expectations to an almost ludicrous extent. Another spuriously aggressive methodological change has knocked the weight down on highly seasonal items and is likely to cause numerous surprises for years.</li>
<li>Expenditure data provided a good proxy of the weight changes in Germany. We have applied these factors across Northern Europe and an augmented version elsewhere, and are well-positioned to precisely incorporate the news once it’s announced.</li>
<li>The ECB is now set to be surprised by inflation’s strength in 2021, which should help discourage the delivery of another deposit rate cut, in our view.</li>
</ul>


Flash inflation releases for January have exceeded expectations to an almost ludicrous extent. Another spuriously aggressive methodological change has knocked the weight down on highly seasonal items and is likely to cause numerous surprises for years.
Expenditure data provided a good proxy of the weight changes in Germany. We have applied these factors across Northern Europe and an augmented version elsewhere, and are well-positioned to precisely incorporate the news once it’s announced.
The ECB is now set to be surprised by inflation’s strength in 2021, which should help discourage the delivery of another deposit rate cut, in our view.


EA: Heavyweight Uppercut for Inflation