Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Headline EA inflation reassuringly matched consensus expectations by slowing 39bps to 2.2% in Aug-24 on energy price falls, with relatively small and neutral national surprises.</li><li>A rebound in services inflation offset goods price weakness again to keep the core at 2.84%. Resilience here isn’t worrying enough to prevent further interest rate cuts.</li><li>Broader stability in the forecast seems more relevant to the ECB, who should cut again while welcoming the reversal of the upward revisions after July’s upside surprise.</li></ul><p></p>

Headline EA inflation reassuringly matched consensus expectations by slowing 39bps to 2.2% in Aug-24 on energy price falls, with relatively small and neutral national surprises.A rebound in services inflation offset goods price weakness again to keep the core at 2.84%. Resilience here isn’t worrying enough to prevent further interest rate cuts.Broader stability in the forecast seems more relevant to the ECB, who should cut again while welcoming the reversal of the upward revisions after July’s upside surprise.

EA: Forecast Stability Secures Sep-24 Cut