Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>EA inflation matched consensus expectations of 2.5% y-o-y in June despite German softness as a Benelux surge offset it, with the outcome 6bps above our forecast.</li><li>Services inflation was responsible for the upside again, as it was worryingly stuck at 4.1%, suggesting there has been no underlying progress in the past several months.</li><li>The stability of headline outcomes to past expectations reassures the ECB, keeping September alive for another cut, assuming its peers deliver on their bias to start soon.</li></ul><p></p>

EA inflation matched consensus expectations of 2.5% y-o-y in June despite German softness as a Benelux surge offset it, with the outcome 6bps above our forecast.Services inflation was responsible for the upside again, as it was worryingly stuck at 4.1%, suggesting there has been no underlying progress in the past several months.The stability of headline outcomes to past expectations reassures the ECB, keeping September alive for another cut, assuming its peers deliver on their bias to start soon.

EA: ECB Not Yet Stuck By Service Prices