FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

From 20,000 Feet, NZD Looks Set to Free-Fall This Year, Without a Parachute

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Notwithstanding the strength of their banking systems, the CAD and AUD and bank share prices in both countries are exhibiting financial stability risks following the stress experienced by the Canadian mortgage finance company Home Capital Group (HCG).  The CAD fell to new lows in over a year in conjunction with a fall in HCG shares, spilling over the broader bank share prices.  Mortgage Finance Companies (MFCs) are an important cog in the financial infrastructure of Canada, accounting for around 12% of outstanding residential mortgage credit.  The financial stability risks are mitigated significantly by the fact that these mortgages are passed onto banks or the government-backed MBS market, but the MFCs’ business model has been impinged by regulatory action late last year to slow mortgage growth.  MFCs must still find short term finance to warehouse loans before origination of MBS or sale to banks.  Vulnerabilities lie in their low levels of capital, the lower quality of loans they warehouse, and a high cost and less stable sources of funding.  Disruption at one MFC could tighten credit conditions generally in the mortgage market, exacerbate a downturn in the housing market and have broader implications for the economy and financial stability.  The non-bank sector appears to have a much smaller footprint in Australia, but it has been growing recently.  The RBA estimates that it accounts for around 1% of mortgages.  Like MFCs in Canada, Australian non-bank mortgage originators have limited access to short-term finance to warehouse loans prior to securitization.  The Australian housing market has shown tentative signs of peaking after another surge in Q1.  Regulators have forced banks to ratchet up tightening in credit available for investors.  There is an apartment glut developing, of which foreign investors are an important source of demand, and they rely more on non-bank finance.  Risks in the housing market have been weighing on the AUD much of the year, and developments in Canada add one more straw to the camel’s back.  Adding to the risks for the AUD are credit tightening in China, a sudden 6.6% drop in Chinese iron ore futures prices on Tuesday, and a firmer USD as the Fed reaffirmed its course for gradual policy tightening.  Having pushed to a new low, AUD is exhibiting a downtrend, albeit a choppy one, along with CAD and NZD in the last month.  However, there are still two-way risks, including an announcement of fiscal expansion expected by the Australian government next week, which may help boost economic confidence.

Notwithstanding the strength of their banking systems, the CAD and AUD and bank share prices in both countries are exhibiting financial stability risks following the stress experienced by the Canadian mortgage finance company Home Capital Group (HCG).  The CAD fell to new lows in over a year in conjunction with a fall in HCG shares, spilling over the broader bank share prices.  Mortgage Finance Companies (MFCs) are an important cog in the financial infrastructure of Canada, accounting for around 12% of outstanding residential mortgage credit.  The financial stability risks are mitigated significantly by the fact that these mortgages are passed onto banks or the government-backed MBS market, but the MFCs’ business model has been impinged by regulatory action late last year to slow mortgage growth.  MFCs must still find short term finance to warehouse loans before origination of MBS or sale to banks.  Vulnerabilities lie in their low levels of capital, the lower quality of loans they warehouse, and a high cost and less stable sources of funding.  Disruption at one MFC could tighten credit conditions generally in the mortgage market, exacerbate a downturn in the housing market and have broader implications for the economy and financial stability.  The non-bank sector appears to have a much smaller footprint in Australia, but it has been growing recently.  The RBA estimates that it accounts for around 1% of mortgages.  Like MFCs in Canada, Australian non-bank mortgage originators have limited access to short-term finance to warehouse loans prior to securitization.  The Australian housing market has shown tentative signs of peaking after another surge in Q1.  Regulators have forced banks to ratchet up tightening in credit available for investors.  There is an apartment glut developing, of which foreign investors are an important source of demand, and they rely more on non-bank finance.  Risks in the housing market have been weighing on the AUD much of the year, and developments in Canada add one more straw to the camel’s back.  Adding to the risks for the AUD are credit tightening in China, a sudden 6.6% drop in Chinese iron ore futures prices on Tuesday, and a firmer USD as the Fed reaffirmed its course for gradual policy tightening.  Having pushed to a new low, AUD is exhibiting a downtrend, albeit a choppy one, along with CAD and NZD in the last month.  However, there are still two-way risks, including an announcement of fiscal expansion expected by the Australian government next week, which may help boost economic confidence.

Dollar Bloc Housing Market Vulnerabilities