TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Starhub (STH): Disney Is Coming but Enterprise Is Gaining Momentum

Disney 1Q21: Is Streaming Enough to Support $200?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>If we look back at 2020, we’ll see a year unlike any other. Had we been told at the beginning of the year with the S&amp;P at 3250 that there would be a cataclysmic global pandemic that would shock the world’s economy…and that the market would return 12%, you might be confused. And if we told you that this cataclysmic pandemic would eviscerate the travel and tourism business, eliminate sports for most of the year, and slash advertising budgets…and Disney…whose entire business was these exact things…would be 19%, and up more then 105% from the March lows…well, you probably wish you had 20-20 hindsight back then…back when Disney+ had 27M subscribers, and estimated that in 5 years it might have 60-90M subs. They will end 2020 with 90M.</p>
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<p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p>
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If we look back at 2020, we’ll see a year unlike any other. Had we been told at the beginning of the year with the S&amp;P at 3250 that there would be a cataclysmic global pandemic that would shock the world’s economy…and that the market would return 12%, you might be confused. And if we told you that this cataclysmic pandemic would eviscerate the travel and tourism business, eliminate sports for most of the year, and slash advertising budgets…and Disney…whose entire business was these exact things…would be 19%, and up more then 105% from the March lows…well, you probably wish you had 20-20 hindsight back then…back when Disney+ had 27M subscribers, and estimated that in 5 years it might have 60-90M subs. They will end 2020 with 90M.

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.


The Walt Disney Co

Disney Analyst Day: Hindsight Is 2020