Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​​26 Nitto Denko & Disco

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​​​​​​​​​27 Fanuc, Shin-Etsu....

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Silicon Wafers. Why The Tepid Growth Despite Strength in WFE, Foundry & Logic?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Disco's share price has nearly doubled from its COVID low of last March and has risen by more than 40% since September, reaching a new all-time high of ¥33,700 on November 30. This reflects very strong results in the three months to September (2Q of FY Mar-21).But as Campbell Gunn pointed out in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-results-revisions-10-22-chugai-disco-benefit-one-pasona-oisix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44452" rel="noopener">🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results &amp; Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 </a> , the shares are now Overbought and at a new post-listing Relative Price Score high ... the upside will be constrained as the market-implied growth rate of four times GDP is unrealistic... We expect the current cycle to peak ... and the shares to mean-revert out of Overbought territory.New orders and the order backlog peaked in 4Q of FY Mar-20, shipments peaked in 1Q of this fiscal year, and sales and profits peaked in 2Q. Management is guiding for substantially lower sales and profits in 3Q. Operating and net profit were up nearly 40% year-on-year in 2Q; management is guiding for low single-digit growth in 3Q. So far, there is no guidance for FY Mar-21 as a whole, but extrapolating from 3Q guidance and industry trends points to a 12% increase in net profit, which would put the shares on a P/E of 38.5. Japanese SPE industry leader Tokyo Electron, by comparison, is selling at 27.5x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21.

Disco's share price has nearly doubled from its COVID low of last March and has risen by more than 40% since September, reaching a new all-time high of ¥33,700 on November 30. This reflects very strong results in the three months to September (2Q of FY Mar-21).But as Campbell Gunn pointed out in 🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results &amp; Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22  , the shares are now Overbought and at a new post-listing Relative Price Score high ... the upside will be constrained as the market-implied growth rate of four times GDP is unrealistic... We expect the current cycle to peak ... and the shares to mean-revert out of Overbought territory.New orders and the order backlog peaked in 4Q of FY Mar-20, shipments peaked in 1Q of this fiscal year, and sales and profits peaked in 2Q. Management is guiding for substantially lower sales and profits in 3Q. Operating and net profit were up nearly 40% year-on-year in 2Q; management is guiding for low single-digit growth in 3Q. So far, there is no guidance for FY Mar-21 as a whole, but extrapolating from 3Q guidance and industry trends points to a 12% increase in net profit, which would put the shares on a P/E of 38.5. Japanese SPE industry leader Tokyo Electron, by comparison, is selling at 27.5x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-21.

Disco (6146 JP): 2Q Growth Unsustainable, Shares Overbought

DISCO Corp

Disco (6146 JP): 2Q Growth Unsustainable, Shares Overbought