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Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have estimated TCE revenue for 4Q18 to remain stable at USD 61.7m compared with USD 61.5m in 3Q18. Top line is not expected to move downwards in 4Q18 mainly due to 99% fixed revenue days for the remainder of 2018. </li>
<li>Total cash (including restricted levels) stood at USD 202.1m in 3Q18 compared with USD 62.7m in 3Q17. The main catalysts for the improvement were the rebound in operating cash flows as of the second half of 2018 and USD 100m proceeds from the private placement of senior unsecured bonds. </li>
<li>Affiliate Diana Containerships has made the full repayment of USD 34m facility at the beginning of 3Q18. </li>
<li>Net debt to market adjusted fleet value is estimated to stand at safe levels of 44.7%.</li>
<li>We have reduced our fair value to USD 5.0 per share from USD 6.10 per share as we have applied a 10% discount on market values. However, we retain the Attractive stock rating.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/069/original/Diana_stock%20overview.PNG?1551091958" data-smartkarma-image-id="80069"></figure><div class="content-caption">Valuation overview</div><p><em>Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, Drewry</em></p>


We have estimated TCE revenue for 4Q18 to remain stable at USD 61.7m compared with USD 61.5m in 3Q18. Top line is not expected to move downwards in 4Q18 mainly due to 99% fixed revenue days for the remainder of 2018. 
Total cash (including restricted levels) stood at USD 202.1m in 3Q18 compared with USD 62.7m in 3Q17. The main catalysts for the improvement were the rebound in operating cash flows as of the second half of 2018 and USD 100m proceeds from the private placement of senior unsecured bonds. 
Affiliate Diana Containerships has made the full repayment of USD 34m facility at the beginning of 3Q18. 
Net debt to market adjusted fleet value is estimated to stand at safe levels of 44.7%.
We have reduced our fair value to USD 5.0 per share from USD 6.10 per share as we have applied a 10% discount on market values. However, we retain the Attractive stock rating.
Valuation overviewSource: S&amp;P Capital IQ, Drewry

Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX): 2018 Reboot Aids Diana Towards Steady Course