European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Tod's: Failed Privatization Provides Red Carpet for LVMH Bid

CreVal - Crédit Agricole: Grounds for an Improved Offer

Creval - Crédit Agricole: Playing Hard to Get

Tod's: LVMH Goes from 3.3%-> to 10%; 100% Next Year?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Della Valles offer €40/share (1.8 EV/Fwd Sales, c.20% premium) to buy out the minorities (LVMH stays a 10% shareholder). Minimum acceptance condition is 90%, aiming at 60.9% of  float.</li>
<li>Tod's is in turnaround mode (my valuation assumes it'll be successful). A DCF valuation gives €52.21/share, a break-up valuation could reach €57.12/share, while a simpler 2.0x EV/Fwd Sales throws €43.02/share.</li>
<li>The shares trade above the offer and a sweetening may be needed; the offer price seems cheap on any measure. A template could be the acquisition of Creval. <strong>Long</strong>.</li>
</ul>


The Della Valles offer €40/share (1.8 EV/Fwd Sales, c.20% premium) to buy out the minorities (LVMH stays a 10% shareholder). Minimum acceptance condition is 90%, aiming at 60.9% of  float.
Tod's is in turnaround mode (my valuation assumes it'll be successful). A DCF valuation gives €52.21/share, a break-up valuation could reach €57.12/share, while a simpler 2.0x EV/Fwd Sales throws €43.02/share.
The shares trade above the offer and a sweetening may be needed; the offer price seems cheap on any measure. A template could be the acquisition of Creval. Long.


Della Valle/Tod's: Lowball Minorities Buyout

Tod's SpA

Della Valle/Tod's: Lowball Minorities Buyout