Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Despite the recent and transient inversion of the yield curve, incoming US economic data suggests continued growth as the most likely baseline outlook for risky assets.Easier financial conditions due to the Fed's dovish tilt  in 2019 should be supportive for the real economy and risky assets, but they have not prevented a decline in real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and a flatter yield curve.Hitherto, despite a flattening yield curve, US bank lending standards have not tightened significantly due to a rise in net interest margins, an outcome at variance with recent history.US corporate bond market and leverage loan conditions have improved since 2018 Q4, thereby easing concerns about the credit cycle, while legislative changes in Japan could impact liquidity in the AAA-rated collateralised loan obligations (CLO) market.President Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed by demanding an immediate policy shift towards easing, as well as nominating political allies to serve on the Board of Governors, thereby raising the ante on Chair Powell.

Despite the recent and transient inversion of the yield curve, incoming US economic data suggests continued growth as the most likely baseline outlook for risky assets.Easier financial conditions due to the Fed's dovish tilt  in 2019 should be supportive for the real economy and risky assets, but they have not prevented a decline in real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and a flatter yield curve.Hitherto, despite a flattening yield curve, US bank lending standards have not tightened significantly due to a rise in net interest margins, an outcome at variance with recent history.US corporate bond market and leverage loan conditions have improved since 2018 Q4, thereby easing concerns about the credit cycle, while legislative changes in Japan could impact liquidity in the AAA-rated collateralised loan obligations (CLO) market.President Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed by demanding an immediate policy shift towards easing, as well as nominating political allies to serve on the Board of Governors, thereby raising the ante on Chair Powell.

Defying Doomsayers: Making the Case for Continued US Economic Growth