bullish
December Market Thinking
SUMMARY
- The idea behind Market Thinking is not to make macro predictions, but rather, as the subtitle states, to try and ‘make sense of the narrative’; to assess where the markets think they are and to assess whether that is either consistent or credible.
- To that end, this time a year ago, we put out a series of posts – ‘four problems and a solution’ where we looked at the real problem with Bonds – that they offered negative real yields in a world where rates were having to rise sooner or later and that they suffered from an illusion of risk management with a bar bell of cash and junk.
- As we put it : “Looking forward and with the prospect of tighter monetary policy and the certainty of higher price levels, we now find ourselves, after a decade of government intervention and misplaced risk management, asking what now is the role, if any, for bonds in long term investment portfolios?“
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