Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On Friday 30 October, 2020 just after lunch,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> released Q2 earnings (<a href="https://www.daiichisankyo.com/files/investors/library/quarterly_result/2020/pdf/FY2020%20Q2%20Financial%20Results.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a>, <a href="https://www.daiichisankyo.com/files/investors/library/quarterly_result/2020/pdf/FY2020%20Q2%20Presentation%20Material.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) which showed H1 revenue at ¥480.17bn +0.1%yoy, OP at ¥58.47bn -32.1%yoy, and Net Profit ¥51.59bn -19.9%yoy as SG&amp;A and R&amp;D costs both jumped sharply. The company had sharply lowered forecasts for profits this year, even not including the impact of covid-19 beyond that point in late April 2020 when results and the FY2021 forecasts were announced. The company has lowered forecasts further for the year, lowering revenues from ¥970bn to ¥960bn, OP from ¥80bn to ¥60bn, and Net Profit from ¥56bn to ¥53bn. Eagle-eyed readers will note that the implied OP and NP for H2 are effectively zero - ¥1.5bn and ¥1.4bn, respectively.Consensus was already well below original company guidance so shares bounced 4% mid-day on the news, helped by news of a large buyback. <div class="content-highlight">The <a href="https://www.daiichisankyo.com/media/press_release/detail/index_4087.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buyback</a> programme is to buy up to 60 million shares for up to ¥100bn from the start of November 2020 through 23 March 2021. That is 3.1% of shares outstanding. </div>This is non-negligible given Real World Float is roughly 52% of shares out.A buyback also changes the VWAP curve, sometimes significantly.As a result, it is worth understanding the impact against float and investor positioning, and it may be worth altering execution strategy during the buyback period.

On Friday 30 October, 2020 just after lunch,  Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) released Q2 earnings (results, presentation) which showed H1 revenue at ¥480.17bn +0.1%yoy, OP at ¥58.47bn -32.1%yoy, and Net Profit ¥51.59bn -19.9%yoy as SG&amp;A and R&amp;D costs both jumped sharply. The company had sharply lowered forecasts for profits this year, even not including the impact of covid-19 beyond that point in late April 2020 when results and the FY2021 forecasts were announced. The company has lowered forecasts further for the year, lowering revenues from ¥970bn to ¥960bn, OP from ¥80bn to ¥60bn, and Net Profit from ¥56bn to ¥53bn. Eagle-eyed readers will note that the implied OP and NP for H2 are effectively zero - ¥1.5bn and ¥1.4bn, respectively.Consensus was already well below original company guidance so shares bounced 4% mid-day on the news, helped by news of a large buyback. The buyback programme is to buy up to 60 million shares for up to ¥100bn from the start of November 2020 through 23 March 2021. That is 3.1% of shares outstanding. This is non-negligible given Real World Float is roughly 52% of shares out.A buyback also changes the VWAP curve, sometimes significantly.As a result, it is worth understanding the impact against float and investor positioning, and it may be worth altering execution strategy during the buyback period.

Daiichi Sankyo

Dai-Ichi Sankyo (4568) Buyback Dynamics