Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

A veteran with 19-year experience in equity research.

Geographical coverage:
* Companies operating in China, but listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
* Previously China A-share (listed in mainland China).

Equity sector coverage:
* Chinese App / Internet-based consumption in China, e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, etc.
* Previously covered education, transportation, telecom, power, bank, advertisement, hotel, etc.

Research methods:
* Generally bottom-up.
* Talk to related people on the ground.  Talk to readers and independent writers for analyzing a news portal.  Talk to parents and teachers for analyzing a tutoring school. 
* Visit stores and show photos as evidence in notes.
* Do technical analysis when finding a short-seller attacking an equity.

Languages:
* English
* Mandarin Chinese (Official language of China)
* Shanghainese (Language of Shanghai, the most developed city in China)
* Cantonese (Language of Hong Kong and Canton Province, one of the most developed provinces in China)

Overseas Chinese Equities

Ctrip (CTRP): Highest Q1 Operating Margin Since 2014, Upgrade to HOLD

(Some) Promises Kept in 1Q19, but Retaining Sell Rating and $36 Target Price for Ctrip.com

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Destination Shift Could Dampen 2019 Spending

Ctrip.com (CTRP): Surpasses Expedia and Booking to Become the Largest OTA, Upgrade to HOLD

Ctrip Q318 Results: BAD (Increasing Margin Pressure) > GOOD (Bottoming of Revenue Growth)

Ctrip.com (CTRP): Ticketing Began to Recover, But Margin Declined in Key Season, 15% Downside

Equity Bottom-Up

* The recovery in 4Q2018 shows that CTRP has already survived the new law and the new competitor in 2018. * We believe EPS will grow 12% in 2019. * However, we believe the market has already over-reacted to the news last November that CTRP became the largest online travel agency. * We set a target price of USD23.80, which is 32% below the market price.

* The recovery in 4Q2018 shows that CTRP has already survived the new law and the new competitor in 2018. * We believe EPS will grow 12% in 2019. * However, we believe the market has already over-reacted to the news last November that CTRP became the largest online travel agency. * We set a target price of USD23.80, which is 32% below the market price.

Ctrip (CTRP): Overcame Two Difficulties in Q4, But Market Over-Reacted to “Global No. 1”

Trip.com

Ctrip (CTRP): Overcame Two Difficulties in Q4, But Market Over-Reacted to “Global No. 1”