European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Generali/Cattolica: Voluntary Tender Offer

CreVal - Crédit Agricole: Grounds for an Improved Offer

Creval - Crédit Agricole: Playing Hard to Get

Event-Driven

On 20 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-agricole-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21373:1" rel="noopener">Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)</a> boosted its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credito-valtellinese-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21175:1" rel="noopener">Credito Valtellinese SpA (CVAL IM)</a> to €12.50/share from €12.20, regardless of any threshold met, 0.8% above my TP on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/creval-credit-agricole-grounds-for-an-improved-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50036" rel="noopener">CreVal - Crédit Agricole: Grounds for an Improved Offer</a>).
Crédit Agricole holds now 91.17% of CreVal. As per the offer document, conditions for the purchase obligation are met.
<ul>
<li>
Crédit Agricole Italy will still buy your shares at a fair price should you decide to sell (probably the wisest decision, as Borsa Italiana will order the delisting).
</li>
<li>
CreVal closed at €12.29 on 26 April, a gross spread of 1.7%, and the annualised spread should, at worst, be c. 7%.
</li>
<li>
The exact payment date for shares tendered under the purchase obligation is not specified, but "as soon as possible and, in any case, no later than three months from the payment date" (30 April 2021).
</li>
<li>
Liquidity is thinner now, button exactly illiquid, c. €1.8 mn on 16 April.
</li>
<li>
Recommendation is long AND exercise the purchase obligation.
</li>
</ul>

On 20 April, Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP) boosted its offer for Credito Valtellinese SpA (CVAL IM) to €12.50/share from €12.20, regardless of any threshold met, 0.8% above my TP on CreVal - Crédit Agricole: Grounds for an Improved Offer).
Crédit Agricole holds now 91.17% of CreVal. As per the offer document, conditions for the purchase obligation are met.


Crédit Agricole Italy will still buy your shares at a fair price should you decide to sell (probably the wisest decision, as Borsa Italiana will order the delisting).


CreVal closed at €12.29 on 26 April, a gross spread of 1.7%, and the annualised spread should, at worst, be c. 7%.


The exact payment date for shares tendered under the purchase obligation is not specified, but "as soon as possible and, in any case, no later than three months from the payment date" (30 April 2021).


Liquidity is thinner now, button exactly illiquid, c. €1.8 mn on 16 April.


Recommendation is long AND exercise the purchase obligation.



Credit Agricole/CreVal: Purchase Obligation