Cosco Shipping Ports (HK: 1199): Valuation Dented by Trade War, Expect Moderate Recovery

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We use DCF with a derived fair value of HKD 7.63 per share (previously HKD 8.8). We ascribe 21x PE for its equity stake terminals and use the DCF model with WACC 8.9% for the portfolio of subsidiaries. The upside risks to our valuation are: First, a higher-than-expected payout ratio; Second, an escalation of trade war impacting US-China trade adversely.</p>

We use DCF with a derived fair value of HKD 7.63 per share (previously HKD 8.8). We ascribe 21x PE for its equity stake terminals and use the DCF model with WACC 8.9% for the portfolio of subsidiaries. The upside risks to our valuation are: First, a higher-than-expected payout ratio; Second, an escalation of trade war impacting US-China trade adversely.

Cosco Shipping Ports: High Leverage Sustains Europe Expansion