HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

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COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Ahead of the Curve...but Too Much

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Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

<ul>
<li>At 0.71x 12-month forward P/B multiple, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> has overly discounted the earnings recovery for FY22 and FY23.</li>
<li>VLCC rate has rebounded since end-Jun but are still at unexciting US$10,000/day level only. This is below an estimated cash breakeven level of US$25,000/day for its fleet.</li>
<li>Tanker demand-supply balance looks to be at equilibrium over the next 12 months, leaving limited potential for significant surge in rate. This opens room for earnings disappointment, in our view. </li>
</ul>


At 0.71x 12-month forward P/B multiple, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) has overly discounted the earnings recovery for FY22 and FY23.
VLCC rate has rebounded since end-Jun but are still at unexciting US$10,000/day level only. This is below an estimated cash breakeven level of US$25,000/day for its fleet.
Tanker demand-supply balance looks to be at equilibrium over the next 12 months, leaving limited potential for significant surge in rate. This opens room for earnings disappointment, in our view. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Stay Away at the Moment