HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

Neptune Orient Lines: Cost Control Confidence

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Strength of Turning Around

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): 10-Year Low Valuation Reflected Worst Case Scenario

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time to Take Some Money off the Table

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Very Good News - OFAC Lifted Dalian Tanker Sanction

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

<p>Riding on the sharp rally in VLCC rates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> (CSET) posted an impressive 46.9% YoY growth in profit in 1Q20. We expect 2Q20 will be even stronger for this name due to sustained high rates on floating crude oil storage demand. </p><p>However, we are cautious that: 1.) astronomical VLCC rates may not sustain for long; 2.) it may not be able to fully capture all upside; 3.) VLCC supply will emerge once dust are settled; 4.) lackluster oil demand will mean significant rate retreat in the next two years; and 5.) EPS and ROE dilution from non-public A-share issuance.  In a month's time, CSET rallied 82% from super-undervalued to now 1SD above historical average P/B, we think taking profit is now a prudent move.</p>

Riding on the sharp rally in VLCC rates, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) (CSET) posted an impressive 46.9% YoY growth in profit in 1Q20. We expect 2Q20 will be even stronger for this name due to sustained high rates on floating crude oil storage demand. However, we are cautious that: 1.) astronomical VLCC rates may not sustain for long; 2.) it may not be able to fully capture all upside; 3.) VLCC supply will emerge once dust are settled; 4.) lackluster oil demand will mean significant rate retreat in the next two years; and 5.) EPS and ROE dilution from non-public A-share issuance.  In a month's time, CSET rallied 82% from super-undervalued to now 1SD above historical average P/B, we think taking profit is now a prudent move.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Solid 1Q20, Stronger 2Q20; but Much Has Been Priced In