China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>We believe over household and corporate sentiment is relatively strong. Leaving aside the data, based upon our conversations in China, we believe this to ban accurate assessment of business and consumer sentiment.  Additionally, it is our position that consumer and corporate sentiment peaked probably in Q4 2017 of Q1 2018 and has begun flattening or drifting down. It must be stressed however, that these remain at relatively high levels both cyclically and historically.  Finally, while we believe these numbers will remain flat or drift downwards, we see no near term catalyst to cause a larger change.</p>

We believe over household and corporate sentiment is relatively strong. Leaving aside the data, based upon our conversations in China, we believe this to ban accurate assessment of business and consumer sentiment.  Additionally, it is our position that consumer and corporate sentiment peaked probably in Q4 2017 of Q1 2018 and has begun flattening or drifting down. It must be stressed however, that these remain at relatively high levels both cyclically and historically.  Finally, while we believe these numbers will remain flat or drift downwards, we see no near term catalyst to cause a larger change.

Corporate and Consumer Sentiment in China Remain Strong