Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

India Energy / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The implosion of the ‘incoherent mess’ US healthcare proposal I described in the 9th March note occurred during my recent Asian roadshow, and post-election winning trades continue to reverse.The hope that feuding Republicans factions can now regroup and move swiftly on tax and regulatory reform looks optimisticThe overweight bet in EM equities has paid off, with the best quarterly performance in five years while the 11% Mexican Peso rally has distilled the wider Trump reassessment. Global growth has outperformed value and my preference for North Asian cyclical exposure (notably tech) has been justified - Korean exports surged almost 14% last month led by semis.I’m taking profits on Q1 tactical shorts on USDJPY (+6%) and miners (+11%) and also the long term position in US housebuilders (+126%) and adding a long global oil E&amp;P position.Asset allocation in Q2 hinges on whether the weak run of hard US data continues and the risk of China tightening policy more broadly to slow a still booming housing market.With unemployment at 2.8% and unlike the US a record participation rate, Japan is trying to eliminate unpaid overtime and thus get service companies to raise prices and productivity.The apparent lack of wage growth is predominantly due to the increase in non-regular workers who comprise almost 38% of the workforce but that share is likely peaking.I visited Myanmar on my trip, where hopes for a rapid economic miracle are receding (FDI fell about 30% last year and growth dipped to 6.5%) and the year-old NLD government is struggling.However, Yangon is one of the most impressively well managed cities in EM Asia and with growing technocratic and investment inflows from Singapore, the bullish long-term potential looks intact.In Thailand, large infrastructure projects to tackle growing transport bottlenecks are belatedly set to begin – local construction stocks have lagged versus regional peers and should re-rate.

The implosion of the ‘incoherent mess’ US healthcare proposal I described in the 9th March note occurred during my recent Asian roadshow, and post-election winning trades continue to reverse.The hope that feuding Republicans factions can now regroup and move swiftly on tax and regulatory reform looks optimisticThe overweight bet in EM equities has paid off, with the best quarterly performance in five years while the 11% Mexican Peso rally has distilled the wider Trump reassessment. Global growth has outperformed value and my preference for North Asian cyclical exposure (notably tech) has been justified - Korean exports surged almost 14% last month led by semis.I’m taking profits on Q1 tactical shorts on USDJPY (+6%) and miners (+11%) and also the long term position in US housebuilders (+126%) and adding a long global oil E&amp;P position.Asset allocation in Q2 hinges on whether the weak run of hard US data continues and the risk of China tightening policy more broadly to slow a still booming housing market.With unemployment at 2.8% and unlike the US a record participation rate, Japan is trying to eliminate unpaid overtime and thus get service companies to raise prices and productivity.The apparent lack of wage growth is predominantly due to the increase in non-regular workers who comprise almost 38% of the workforce but that share is likely peaking.I visited Myanmar on my trip, where hopes for a rapid economic miracle are receding (FDI fell about 30% last year and growth dipped to 6.5%) and the year-old NLD government is struggling.However, Yangon is one of the most impressively well managed cities in EM Asia and with growing technocratic and investment inflows from Singapore, the bullish long-term potential looks intact.In Thailand, large infrastructure projects to tackle growing transport bottlenecks are belatedly set to begin – local construction stocks have lagged versus regional peers and should re-rate.

Contrarian Positioning Rewarded in Q1, Japan Finally at Wage Inflection Point?