New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We calculate Contact Energy (CEN) will report a record six month EBITDAF result on 19 February 2024, but strong headwinds means it faces a challenging 2H24.</li><li>The strong 1H24 result has been driven by a big lift in the mass market retail netback, with the effects of the delayed start of CEN's Tauhara geothermal project the main negative impacting 2H24.</li><li>These negative headwinds facing CEN should be transitory, and the effect of lower interest rates has lifted our target price +35cps (+4.8%) to NZ$7.70.</li></ul>

We calculate Contact Energy (CEN) will report a record six month EBITDAF result on 19 February 2024, but strong headwinds means it faces a challenging 2H24.The strong 1H24 result has been driven by a big lift in the mass market retail netback, with the effects of the delayed start of CEN's Tauhara geothermal project the main negative impacting 2H24.These negative headwinds facing CEN should be transitory, and the effect of lower interest rates has lifted our target price +35cps (+4.8%) to NZ$7.70.

Contact Energy - Speed Wobbles Ahead — Dec '23 Op Stats