Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

India Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Consumer loan segment in India is growing at over 20% YoY, a fresh high post the GFC, as new categories drive growth and banks use analytics to contain costs in a high volume low ticket segment having superior asset quality</li><li>New categories like Quick personal loans (pre-approved using analytics and credit scores), eCommerce &amp; Microfinance along with recovery in older segments like vehicle loans, loan against shares &amp; credit cards is driving the growth</li><li>Debt sustainability: our calculations indicate that household debt to GDP for India is at 16.6% vs 30.6% average for EM countries and 40% in China. If we add some estimate for the unorganised segment (moneylenders) then ratio rises at least to 18% of GDP. While there is more room for growth but ratio not as low as 10% that gets reported in most publications.</li><li>Premium valuation for Retail focused lenders: Retail focused banks &amp; finance co.s already trade at premium multiples (2.5-6x P/B) . While much of valuation rerating may be behind us but strong and consistent growth in this category will continue to provide above market returns.</li><li>We like Indusind Bank among the banking stocks and Ujjivan Financial services among Non-banking finance  co.s for their superior growth and valuation profile  </li></ul>

Consumer loan segment in India is growing at over 20% YoY, a fresh high post the GFC, as new categories drive growth and banks use analytics to contain costs in a high volume low ticket segment having superior asset qualityNew categories like Quick personal loans (pre-approved using analytics and credit scores), eCommerce &amp; Microfinance along with recovery in older segments like vehicle loans, loan against shares &amp; credit cards is driving the growthDebt sustainability: our calculations indicate that household debt to GDP for India is at 16.6% vs 30.6% average for EM countries and 40% in China. If we add some estimate for the unorganised segment (moneylenders) then ratio rises at least to 18% of GDP. While there is more room for growth but ratio not as low as 10% that gets reported in most publications.Premium valuation for Retail focused lenders: Retail focused banks &amp; finance co.s already trade at premium multiples (2.5-6x P/B) . While much of valuation rerating may be behind us but strong and consistent growth in this category will continue to provide above market returns.We like Indusind Bank among the banking stocks and Ujjivan Financial services among Non-banking finance  co.s for their superior growth and valuation profile  

Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. (MMFS IN)

Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN)

ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Limited (WIL IN)

ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Limited

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (CIFC IN)

Cholamandalam Financial Holdings (CHOLAHLD IN)

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU IN)

Consumer Loans Boom in India & There Is More Ahead: Lower Yields, 7th Pay Plan & EComm to Drive