Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Nearly 30 years of experience in the Korean/Asian equity research. Major sectors coverage include the following:
- Technology 
- Consumer 
- Special Situations/Deep Value Plays
- Tender Offers/M&As
- Holdcos/Stubs
- Asian Unicorns/Private Companies

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Coinbase Direct Listing Valuation Analysis

Coinbase IPO – Why You Can Justify a $100bn Valuation… If You Want

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

TMI Snapshot:  Bitcoin Vs. Gold Update and Recent Crypto Topics Via Text Mining

TMI Snapshot:  Update on Bitcoin Vs. Gold Via Text Mining

Equity Capital Markets

Coinbase Global  / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US) </a>plans to complete its direct public listing in April. Coinbase is an operator of one of the largest digital currency exchanges in the world. Established in 2012, Coinbase currently has more than 43 million retail users and 7,000 institutional investors. </p><p>According to the prospectus, the Coinbase shares have traded hands at prices from $200 to $375. The volume weighted average price per share was $343.58 from January to 15 March. Coinbase has recently been valued as high as <a href="https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-channel/coinbase-valued-at-100-billion-ipo-approaches/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 billion</a>, which is a significant increase from its private market value of $8 billion in October 2018. Early investors in Coinbase include Tiger Global Management, Y Combinator Continuity, New York Stock Exchange, and Andreessen Horowitz.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2>A $100 Billion Valuation?</h2>
<p>Numerous media sources have cited that Coinbase is seeking about <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-02/coinbase-ipo-coin-the-crypto-exchange-is-a-100-billion-cult" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$100 billion</a> in valuation at its direct public listing. Despite the numerous positive factors (such as surging sales growth and turn to profitability), it is difficult to argue for this high of a valuation. At $100 billion valuation, it would represent a whopping 78x P/S multiple (using 2020 sales). It certainly helps that Bitcoin and Ethereum have been surging in prices in the past year.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, even Coinbase itself has pointed out in its prospectus that Bitcoin has experienced four major cycles since its launch (the fourth cycle is still ongoing). We would argue that for the prudent investors, there is no rush to buy Coinbase while Bitcoin price is near at its all time highs. The prudent investor should wait until there is a major correction in the Bitcoin price to see how the Coinbase's financials are able to withstand such correction. </p>
<p><strong>In addition, we would argue that as the Bitcoin and crypto trading become more mainstream, the trading fees for the cryptos WILL GO DOWN much more significantly, which is likely to negatively impact Coinbase.  </strong></p>
</div>

Coinbase (COIN US) plans to complete its direct public listing in April. Coinbase is an operator of one of the largest digital currency exchanges in the world. Established in 2012, Coinbase currently has more than 43 million retail users and 7,000 institutional investors. According to the prospectus, the Coinbase shares have traded hands at prices from $200 to $375. The volume weighted average price per share was $343.58 from January to 15 March. Coinbase has recently been valued as high as $100 billion, which is a significant increase from its private market value of $8 billion in October 2018. Early investors in Coinbase include Tiger Global Management, Y Combinator Continuity, New York Stock Exchange, and Andreessen Horowitz.
A $100 Billion Valuation?
Numerous media sources have cited that Coinbase is seeking about $100 billion in valuation at its direct public listing. Despite the numerous positive factors (such as surging sales growth and turn to profitability), it is difficult to argue for this high of a valuation. At $100 billion valuation, it would represent a whopping 78x P/S multiple (using 2020 sales). It certainly helps that Bitcoin and Ethereum have been surging in prices in the past year.
Nonetheless, even Coinbase itself has pointed out in its prospectus that Bitcoin has experienced four major cycles since its launch (the fourth cycle is still ongoing). We would argue that for the prudent investors, there is no rush to buy Coinbase while Bitcoin price is near at its all time highs. The prudent investor should wait until there is a major correction in the Bitcoin price to see how the Coinbase's financials are able to withstand such correction. 
In addition, we would argue that as the Bitcoin and crypto trading become more mainstream, the trading fees for the cryptos WILL GO DOWN much more significantly, which is likely to negatively impact Coinbase.  


Coinbase Global

Coinbase Direct Public Listing Preview