Equities. Commodities. Metals & Mining

Rahul Jain

More than 20 years experience in covering in Indian metals and mining sector as a sell side analyst. Focus on global commodity trends and actionable ideas. Have deep sectoral understanding and corporate connects. Have had several mine, plant visits and have engaged with 100s of buyside fund managers and analysts across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future</li>
<li>Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability</li>
<li>Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds</li>
</ul>


COAL's production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future
Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability
Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds


Coal India Ltd

Coal India (COAL IN) Value Trap