Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

COP26/ COVID-19/ Monetary Policy/ MeToo/ Plenum

China: 3Q21 Slowdown Aside, Unquantifiable Risks Could Undermine 4Q21 Recovery

China: Downside Risks To Growth Entail Broader Spillovers To ASEAN, Most Of Which Are Negative

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>The economy is encountering multiple headwinds, with manufacturing weakening again in October. Policy makers insist that these challenges are transitory, focusing instead, on addressing structural issues, even if such measures might put short term growth at risk.</li>
<li>We believe that the chances of a policy misjudgement have grown. Some of the current headwinds in the economy are the direct result of mis-calibrated policies. Such is President Xi’s overweening political dominance that technocrats are probably less willing to disagree with their political master’s view of things. The economy has grown more complex with unfamiliar developments whose impacts are difficult to quantify - which means that policy makers might miss how some adverse developments might drag down other parts of the economy. The policy trade-offs are also getting sharper, with measures such as deleveraging being good for the long term but which could crystallise financial stresses if implemented without proper calibration.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that the economy is becoming more vulnerable to potential adverse developments such as slower external demand or a surge in COVID-19 infections.</li>
</ul>


The economy is encountering multiple headwinds, with manufacturing weakening again in October. Policy makers insist that these challenges are transitory, focusing instead, on addressing structural issues, even if such measures might put short term growth at risk.
We believe that the chances of a policy misjudgement have grown. Some of the current headwinds in the economy are the direct result of mis-calibrated policies. Such is President Xi’s overweening political dominance that technocrats are probably less willing to disagree with their political master’s view of things. The economy has grown more complex with unfamiliar developments whose impacts are difficult to quantify - which means that policy makers might miss how some adverse developments might drag down other parts of the economy. The policy trade-offs are also getting sharper, with measures such as deleveraging being good for the long term but which could crystallise financial stresses if implemented without proper calibration.
The bottom line is that the economy is becoming more vulnerable to potential adverse developments such as slower external demand or a surge in COVID-19 infections.


China: Rising Risk Of Policy Error