Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Stanley has over 20 years of capital markets experience on the buy side and sell side and as a credit analyst. He is the founder of Antler Capital, the culmination of his efforts to deliver differentiated solutions to global investors since 2021.

From 2017 to 2021, he was a Managing Director at CSPI Ratings, a credit rating agency servicing the USD bond market. He also led the firm’s efforts in sustainable finance.

Prior to that, he held various roles at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Nighthawk Capital, CLSA and Fitch Ratings. He was also an advisor at WWF, supporting the organization’s bankable nature solutions program.

Stanley has an honors degree in Finance from the University of British Columbia. He has been a CFA charterholder since 2004.

China Macro: Ready for Zero Industrial Growth?

China Macro: Surging Export Prices and An Incredibly Expensive X'mas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
China's PPI will likely come off its peak in November, when the impact of falling coal prices filters through. Imported inflation will also moderate. </li>
<li>
The gap between PPI and CPI suggests tremendous pressures on manufacturers that have been price takers. Core CPI has been benign amid soft demand, but consumer prices have to rise.</li>
<li>
Onshore fixed-income investors have been more aggressively pricing in RRR/MLF/LPR cuts in recent weeks. Inaction by the PBOC may trigger a CGB sell-off and send 10-year yields above 3%.</li>
</ul>



China's PPI will likely come off its peak in November, when the impact of falling coal prices filters through. Imported inflation will also moderate. 

The gap between PPI and CPI suggests tremendous pressures on manufacturers that have been price takers. Core CPI has been benign amid soft demand, but consumer prices have to rise.

Onshore fixed-income investors have been more aggressively pricing in RRR/MLF/LPR cuts in recent weeks. Inaction by the PBOC may trigger a CGB sell-off and send 10-year yields above 3%.


China Macro: Trickle-Down Inflation and Easing Bets