Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The proposed Yuan1trn capital injection for the six largest banks would be pre-emptive, while China is also quick to merge weaker/failing small to mid-sized banks. </li>
<li>However, rising NPL’s with low policy rate and pressure to rollover LGFV/SOE debt will likely all ensure that overall lending growth is restrained in the next few years.</li>
<li>Additionally, rising NPL’s/confidence concerns could cause more small and mid-sized banks to run into solvency issues and this could cause intermittent 2 tier banking stress and mini crisis in China.    </li>
</ul>


The proposed Yuan1trn capital injection for the six largest banks would be pre-emptive, while China is also quick to merge weaker/failing small to mid-sized banks. 
However, rising NPL’s with low policy rate and pressure to rollover LGFV/SOE debt will likely all ensure that overall lending growth is restrained in the next few years.
Additionally, rising NPL’s/confidence concerns could cause more small and mid-sized banks to run into solvency issues and this could cause intermittent 2 tier banking stress and mini crisis in China.    


China Banking System: Lessons from Japan