Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/040/172/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-12-11%20at%206.57.27%20AM.png?1512937844" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="40172"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
<p>The story of the US economy this year has been upward growth surprises and downward inflation surprises, producing an equity-friendly mix of faster top-line growth and accelerating productivity. That is about to change however heading into 2018. </p>
<p>GDP growth is almost certainly set to reach a crescendo of c.4% SAAR in Q4 and then quickly head south back towards, even below, its likely short-run potential rate of c.2%. Key surveys such as the ISMs have already peaked and likely to continue…</p>
</div>


The story of the US economy this year has been upward growth surprises and downward inflation surprises, producing an equity-friendly mix of faster top-line growth and accelerating productivity. That is about to change however heading into 2018. 
GDP growth is almost certainly set to reach a crescendo of c.4% SAAR in Q4 and then quickly head south back towards, even below, its likely short-run potential rate of c.2%. Key surveys such as the ISMs have already peaked and likely to continue…


Chart of the Day: The Comeback Kid