CentralNic Group - 51% organic revenue growth in Q122

CentralNic has confirmed that revenue growth driven by Online Marketing continued at a very high level in Q122, with 51% organic revenue growth (LTM pro forma revenues of c US$530m). Management expects Q122 revenues of US$156m (US$624m annualised) and adjusted EBITDA of c US$18m (US$72m annualised). This represents an acceleration from 2021, which saw strengthening organic growth throughout the year (Q121: 16%, H121: 20%, 9M21: 29%, FY21: 39%). As a result, management expects CentralNic to ‘materially exceed’ consensus market expectations for FY22 (revenue US$517m, EBITDA US$60m). We have raised our FY22 gross revenue estimate by 11% to US$573m and our adjusted EBITDA estimate by 9% to US$66m. Based on our revised estimates, CentralNic trades on an FY22 P/E of 9.7x and on 7.3x FY22 EV/adjusted EBITDA.