We have updated our valuation of Canacol Energy to reflect management guidance for 2022 and its preliminary expectations for 2021. Our valuation per share decreases to C$5.69 from C$6.12. Management expects gas sales for 2022 to be between 160mmscfd and 200mmscfd, with the midpoint in line with realised average sales for December 2021 of 183mmscfd. Capex of US$172m to US$209m will cover up to 12 exploration and development wells, three of which will step outside the company’s historical core area, as it targets a reserves replacement ratio of over 200%. Management will also focus on progressing work on the Jobo to Medellin pipeline, which will add 100mmscfd of sales capacity by the end of 2024.
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