New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Building Weekly</h2>
<h3>New Zealand</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>Residential prices leap higher</strong> (REINZ, Oct.): House sales down -4.7% mom, +25.0% yoy (previous +12.4% mom, +41.0% yoy); days to sell in Auckland -6 yoy to 30 (vs. long-term average 35), ex-Auckland -3 to 29 (vs. long-term average 42). House prices +3.5% mom, +13.5% yoy (previous +2.6% mom, +10.9% yoy), with Auckland +15.4% yoy and ex-Auckland +12.0% yoy.</li>
<li><strong>Residential rent growth remains mixed</strong> (Sep.): 3m rolling average rents – Auckland -0.4% yoy,&nbsp; Wellington +1.7% yoy, rest of North Island +5.4% yoy, Canterbury +1.9% yoy, and rest of South Island -4.0% yoy.</li>
<li><strong>Closed boarders continue to mute migration</strong> (Sep.): Net gain of 808 migrants in September -90.1% yoy (previous +1,141, -84.5%). 12 months to Sep. +67.7k (previous 75.1k).</li>
<li><strong>ASB and ANZ reinstate LVR’s early</strong>: <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/430534/anz-joins-asb-in-reintroducing-lvr-for-investors" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/430534/anz-joins-asb-in-reintroducing-lvr-for-investors&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605761411527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHJ3_2jas79tcHg8ziynBc-0Pl4FA" rel="noopener">ANZ joins ASB in reintroducing LVR for investors</a></li>
<li><strong>Government considering support for first home buyers</strong>: <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-hints-at-lifeline-for-first-home-buyers-getting-into-recession-proof-market/5BKUBHCXAHVHJ3CIFIALBJMATQ/" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/pm-jacinda-ardern-hints-at-lifeline-for-first-home-buyers-getting-into-recession-proof-market/5BKUBHCXAHVHJ3CIFIALBJMATQ/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605761411527000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGB4NyU5zJ18BPqzH_AAg9jQs8c8A" rel="noopener">PM Jacinda Ardern hints at lifeline for first-home buyers getting into recession-proof market</a></li>
</ul>
<h3>Australia</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>New home sales remain buoyant</strong> (Oct.): Detached dwellings -1.3% mom, +33.8% yoy (previous +3.8% mom, +29.1% yoy).</li>
</ul>
<h3>International</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>US: Homebuilder confidence continues to reach new highs</strong> (Nov.): 90 (previous 85; positive &gt;50&gt; negative).</li>
<li><strong>China: Construction activity recovery continues</strong> (Oct.): Total building starts -2.6% yoy (previous -3.4%) with residential -3.3% (previous -4.2%), office -7.2% yoy (previous -3.7%) and business buildings -6.0% (previous -6.3%).</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Chart of the week: Auckland rents are down slightly on last year, but that’s not impacting house prices up +15.4% yoy</strong><br>3mth moving average rents, yoy % change</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.1&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1683665088106862186&amp;th=175d947a2956166a&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ-rItNkp01lCZkxgJqBFO53bFFEzqbuiLQFSVkKACatLDlDkh6T9-nvCNZNKxHEr0ddGk-WKqxd7uN20oBS7z02sPEimLEBtxEZ9dIa7AoZBTw75Eny7BovLac&amp;disp=emb" width="454" height="302" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-image-whitelisted=""></figure>
<p>Source:&nbsp;Stats NZ,&nbsp;Forsyth Barr analysis</p>
<p><strong>Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp;</strong><br>Senior Analyst, Equities</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.2&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1683665088106862186&amp;th=175d947a2956166a&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ_vTmCp4fVNWAcy4a7q-IIPIso37vXNLqqqz4CoIAnZpsiKGbmZoktsdcXxucE2OuDGTVSSlRKTWRTlnj7HBiqggFt-WKL3K8BQwKmoLgzC6d6nCK6s1dJBtq8&amp;disp=emb" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure>
<p><br>P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp;<br>Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland</p>

Building Weekly
New Zealand

Residential prices leap higher (REINZ, Oct.): House sales down -4.7% mom, +25.0% yoy (previous +12.4% mom, +41.0% yoy); days to sell in Auckland -6 yoy to 30 (vs. long-term average 35), ex-Auckland -3 to 29 (vs. long-term average 42). House prices +3.5% mom, +13.5% yoy (previous +2.6% mom, +10.9% yoy), with Auckland +15.4% yoy and ex-Auckland +12.0% yoy.
Residential rent growth remains mixed (Sep.): 3m rolling average rents – Auckland -0.4% yoy,&nbsp; Wellington +1.7% yoy, rest of North Island +5.4% yoy, Canterbury +1.9% yoy, and rest of South Island -4.0% yoy.
Closed boarders continue to mute migration (Sep.): Net gain of 808 migrants in September -90.1% yoy (previous +1,141, -84.5%). 12 months to Sep. +67.7k (previous 75.1k).
ASB and ANZ reinstate LVR’s early: ANZ joins ASB in reintroducing LVR for investors
Government considering support for first home buyers: PM Jacinda Ardern hints at lifeline for first-home buyers getting into recession-proof market

Australia

New home sales remain buoyant (Oct.): Detached dwellings -1.3% mom, +33.8% yoy (previous +3.8% mom, +29.1% yoy).

International

US: Homebuilder confidence continues to reach new highs (Nov.): 90 (previous 85; positive &gt;50&gt; negative).
China: Construction activity recovery continues (Oct.): Total building starts -2.6% yoy (previous -3.4%) with residential -3.3% (previous -4.2%), office -7.2% yoy (previous -3.7%) and business buildings -6.0% (previous -6.3%).

Chart of the week: Auckland rents are down slightly on last year, but that’s not impacting house prices up +15.4% yoy 3mth moving average rents, yoy % change

Source:&nbsp;Stats NZ,&nbsp;Forsyth Barr analysis
Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp; Senior Analyst, Equities

 P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp; Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland