Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

BTS Group Warrants - The Less the Merrier

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

BTS Group Holdings PCL / Equity Bottom-Up

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bts-group-holdings-pcl-080483c3-7599-4c1c-8f5d-e9737c713b67" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28858:1" rel="noopener">BTS Group Holdings PCL (BTS-W5 TB)</a> warrants on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bts-group-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15943:1" rel="noopener">BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB)</a> were listed, and there were no buy opportunities. 
Instead, there were selling opportunities. And if you did not sell them then, you should think about doing so now.
The warrants are trading at an implied volatility exceeding that seen in the aftermath of the Thai floods in 2011, the demonstrations in 2013 and beyond, and any other time save the buy of BTSC in May 2010 which saw trading volumes rise 25-fold for a period of six months or more. 
The company has changed dramatically since then. 
Thailand has also become the latest country to implement a broad lockdown. Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha said two days ago a state of emergency will be declared for a month. Borders will be closed to foreigners starting today the 26 March; social gatherings are banned, domestic travel has been limited, and only essential shops remain open. From my sources, activity has already been considerably dampened. We can expect damage to BTS revenues. That damage will impact the share price's ability to rebound to record new highs within the next 10 months so the warrants seem like an asset which will wither (if you are a vol trader, you know what you are getting into and different parameters apply).
More below.

The BTS Group Holdings PCL (BTS-W5 TB) warrants on BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB) were listed, and there were no buy opportunities. 
Instead, there were selling opportunities. And if you did not sell them then, you should think about doing so now.
The warrants are trading at an implied volatility exceeding that seen in the aftermath of the Thai floods in 2011, the demonstrations in 2013 and beyond, and any other time save the buy of BTSC in May 2010 which saw trading volumes rise 25-fold for a period of six months or more. 
The company has changed dramatically since then. 
Thailand has also become the latest country to implement a broad lockdown. Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha said two days ago a state of emergency will be declared for a month. Borders will be closed to foreigners starting today the 26 March; social gatherings are banned, domestic travel has been limited, and only essential shops remain open. From my sources, activity has already been considerably dampened. We can expect damage to BTS revenues. That damage will impact the share price's ability to rebound to record new highs within the next 10 months so the warrants seem like an asset which will wither (if you are a vol trader, you know what you are getting into and different parameters apply).
More below.

BTS Warrants - Expensive a Month Ago, Even Richer Now So Better to Bail