European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Brookfield/Alstria Office REIT: Agreed Takeover Offer

Brookfield/​Alstria Office REIT: Additional Acceptance Period

Brookfield/Befimmo: Recommended (Cheap) Cash Offer

Event-Driven

On 21 July, Bloomberg reported that Canadian <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-management-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25297:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management-Cl A (BAM/A CN)</a> was working with advisers as it considers a potential bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alstria-office-reit-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21582:1" rel="noopener">alstria office reit-ag (AOX GR)</a><a href="https://platform.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#company/profile?KeyProductLinkType=2&amp;id=4160242" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>. alstria office's shares jumped on the news and closed 9% higher. A buyout of the company would be the biggest take-private deal in Germany in 2021. On the same day, alstria stated it "takes note of the press rumours with respect to a potential takeover offer by Brookfield Asset Management Inc.".
The interest of Brookfield in alstria is a bet on German office market recovery. The portfolio of alstria should hold well in value vis-à-vis any further waves of the pandemic. Moreover cash flows are stable as alstria is mainly exposed to public sector tenants with long-term leases and it has stable occupancy rates.
Before the pandemic, alstria used to trade at a premium to BV, as of 23 July, it traded at 0.94x, and it is showing a remarkable recovery since the lows of November 2020, driven by vaccination campaigns and the soon-to-happen "back-to-office".
<section data-id="bfbe28f" data-element_type="section">
<div data-id="746c0aa" data-element_type="column">
<div data-id="a54fc18" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
On 4 March 2021, S&amp;P upgraded Alstria to BBB+ (outlook stable) on sustained low debt leverage (low ratio of debt to debt plus equity of 27.6%), material share of public tenants and long lease maturity profile and robust liquidity profile.
A takeout price could come in at €18.68, a 10% premium over the last reported EPRA NTA and 6.4% premium to the closing price on 23 July. My PT is economic-profit based and equates to a 1% discount to EPRA NTA 22e (source Capital IQ consensus). alstria trades at 3.5% FFO yield. and 3% dividend yield.
German property values continue to increase. The ECB does not seem worried about inflation as long as the delta variant is spreading and will not stop its debt purchasing program in the short term, therefore monetary policy will likely remain unchanged.
Recommendation is Long AOX GR, PT €18.68.


</div>
</div>
</section>

On 21 July, Bloomberg reported that Canadian Brookfield Asset Management-Cl A (BAM/A CN) was working with advisers as it considers a potential bid for alstria office reit-ag (AOX GR). alstria office's shares jumped on the news and closed 9% higher. A buyout of the company would be the biggest take-private deal in Germany in 2021. On the same day, alstria stated it "takes note of the press rumours with respect to a potential takeover offer by Brookfield Asset Management Inc.".
The interest of Brookfield in alstria is a bet on German office market recovery. The portfolio of alstria should hold well in value vis-à-vis any further waves of the pandemic. Moreover cash flows are stable as alstria is mainly exposed to public sector tenants with long-term leases and it has stable occupancy rates.
Before the pandemic, alstria used to trade at a premium to BV, as of 23 July, it traded at 0.94x, and it is showing a remarkable recovery since the lows of November 2020, driven by vaccination campaigns and the soon-to-happen "back-to-office".



On 4 March 2021, S&amp;P upgraded Alstria to BBB+ (outlook stable) on sustained low debt leverage (low ratio of debt to debt plus equity of 27.6%), material share of public tenants and long lease maturity profile and robust liquidity profile.
A takeout price could come in at €18.68, a 10% premium over the last reported EPRA NTA and 6.4% premium to the closing price on 23 July. My PT is economic-profit based and equates to a 1% discount to EPRA NTA 22e (source Capital IQ consensus). alstria trades at 3.5% FFO yield. and 3% dividend yield.
German property values continue to increase. The ECB does not seem worried about inflation as long as the delta variant is spreading and will not stop its debt purchasing program in the short term, therefore monetary policy will likely remain unchanged.
Recommendation is Long AOX GR, PT €18.68.






Brookfield/Alstria Office REIT: Potential Takeover