Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

United States Brent Oil Fund / Technical Analysis

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25991" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25991">United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO US</a>) – USD15.64) has traded as high as USD15.67 in recent days, at the top end of the 16-month trading range that extends from approximately USD12.00-16.00. Oil’s resilience during this time has confounded many traders as it has refused to break down despite continued bearish sentiment. Longer-term charts give a good sense of perspective and help illustrate why we have been expecting oil to eventually rally further.Commodity indices remain in a bull market, although our base case for the US Brent Crude Oil ETF remains that it is only partially retracing the 81% decline that unfolded in 2014-16. This type of advance will typically retrace 50-71% of the prior decline.We see significant upside potential…why the bears are wrong.The US Brent Crude Oil ETF’s (BNO US) objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit’s net asset value reflect the changes of the price of Brent Crude Oil, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of an average of the Brent Crude Oil futures contracts on the ICE-UK.  Thus it is a useful instrument for those who cannot or don’t want to trade futures.

The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO US) – USD15.64) has traded as high as USD15.67 in recent days, at the top end of the 16-month trading range that extends from approximately USD12.00-16.00. Oil’s resilience during this time has confounded many traders as it has refused to break down despite continued bearish sentiment. Longer-term charts give a good sense of perspective and help illustrate why we have been expecting oil to eventually rally further.Commodity indices remain in a bull market, although our base case for the US Brent Crude Oil ETF remains that it is only partially retracing the 81% decline that unfolded in 2014-16. This type of advance will typically retrace 50-71% of the prior decline.We see significant upside potential…why the bears are wrong.The US Brent Crude Oil ETF’s (BNO US) objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit’s net asset value reflect the changes of the price of Brent Crude Oil, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of an average of the Brent Crude Oil futures contracts on the ICE-UK.  Thus it is a useful instrument for those who cannot or don’t want to trade futures.

United States Brent Oil Fund

Brent Crude Oil: Why the Bears Are Wrong