Borussia Dortmund - Fine margins

Borussia Dortmund (BVB) enters the international break with mixed results. A decent season start, notably Supercup triumph vs Bayern and top of its strong Champions League group, could have been so much better but for difficulty closing out games, epitomised by four recent draws despite winning positions. This may cost Dortmund in a more competitive Bundesliga than of late (leading eight teams separated by just four points). We are nonetheless raising our current-year EBITDA forecast from €110m to €128m both to reflect change of accounting policy (€10.7m boost in FY18) and sustained buoyancy (€21m post-transfer revenue upgrade). Progress is subject as ever to surprise from Dortmund’s ability to generate substantial hidden reserves from transfers (we make no allowance for possible Sancho sale).