European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BBVA (BBVA SM)-Garanti: Better the Devil You Know, Especially in Emerging Markets

Mexican Banks’ October Data Looks Benign on Credit Quality, Watch for Spread Erosion Going Forward

Mexican Banks’ November Data Looking Positive on Credit Quality, Lending Spread Stable

Event-Driven

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA has finally opted to increase its investment in Garanti, despite the instability of the region. The deal makes financial sense (13.7% accretion to 2022e EPS, 2.3% accretion to TBVPS).</li>
<li>The offer price represents 3.6x 22e P/E and 0.7x P/TBV vs c. 0.8x for BBVA, with a reasonable cost in terms of capital (-46 bp in FL CET1).</li>
<li>Gross spread is 4.7% for a deal highly likely to close. <strong>Long GARAN</strong>, target price TRY 12.2.</li>
</ul>


BBVA has finally opted to increase its investment in Garanti, despite the instability of the region. The deal makes financial sense (13.7% accretion to 2022e EPS, 2.3% accretion to TBVPS).
The offer price represents 3.6x 22e P/E and 0.7x P/TBV vs c. 0.8x for BBVA, with a reasonable cost in terms of capital (-46 bp in FL CET1).
Gross spread is 4.7% for a deal highly likely to close. Long GARAN, target price TRY 12.2.


Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As

BBVA/Garanti: Minorities Buyout