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Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long-Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms<ul><li>NIKKEI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress.</li><li>HSI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress/still expected.</li><li>HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long-term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP.</li><li>ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but not invalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50).</li><li>KOSPI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance still expected.</li><li>TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAP</li><li>Nifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now.</li></ul>Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms<ul><li>Previously bearish elements on KOSPI/ MXAP have now turned mixed, advocating for an upgrade from “Decrease Exposure” to “Hold”.</li><li>No change for the other countries: Outperformance remains expected for NKY, HSI, HSCEI and NIFTY as their respective ratios against MXAP bounced/ held above supports.</li><li>Maintain “Hold” ratings for ASX and TWSE.</li></ul>

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long-Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD termsNIKKEI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress.HSI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress/still expected.HSCEI/MXAP: Bullish weekly indicators advocate for long-term HSCEI outperformance against MXAP.ASX/MXAP: ASX outperformance challenged but not invalidated (testing key support at 26.00/25.50).KOSPI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance still expected.TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely key level at (2.22 on ratio TWSE/MXAP) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAPNifty/MXAP: Mixed elements. Neutral for now.Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD termsPreviously bearish elements on KOSPI/ MXAP have now turned mixed, advocating for an upgrade from “Decrease Exposure” to “Hold”.No change for the other countries: Outperformance remains expected for NKY, HSI, HSCEI and NIFTY as their respective ratios against MXAP bounced/ held above supports.Maintain “Hold” ratings for ASX and TWSE.

Aeon Co Ltd

BBSP - Equity Asia Weekly Research