Basilea Pharmaceutica - Poised for an eventful H224

Basilea’s H124 results reflect strong momentum across its pipeline and we expect the pace to accelerate in H224. The key highlight of the period was the FDA approval of Zevtera. We now expect all eyes to be on the announcement of a US commercial partner and the Phase III launch for fosmanogepix (expected imminently). Lead product Cresemba continued its outperformance versus our estimates (16.6% growth in royalties), contributing >90% of H124 revenues of CHF76.3m and driving the company’s FY24 guidance upgrade (group revenues of CHF196m versus CHF183m previously) with H2-weighed milestone payments. The balance sheet continues to strengthen, with strong operating cash flows (CHF17.9m in H124) and a healthy cash balance (gross cash of CHF63m). We adjust our estimates for the stronger than anticipated performance of Cresemba, with our valuation rising to CHF89.7 per share from CHF84.0 per share previously.