Basilea Pharmaceutica - A tale of two halves

Basilea reported good momentum in H120 as total revenues increased to CHF69.3m (+9.7%), highlighting ongoing growth in Cresemba (severe mould infections) sales. Basilea has retained FY20 guidance for revenue and its updated guidance for operating loss (CHF5–15m vs prior expected loss of CHF20–30m) reflects the one-time gain (c CHF15m) related to the sale of its headquarters. We expect H220 to be event-driven, with multiple R&D-related inflection points (derazantinib data in iCCA and urothelial cancer). Basilea plans to initiate a Phase I/II gastric cancer study shortly; adding in this indication increases our derazantinib peak sales estimate to $0.934bn. We value Basilea at CHF1.14bn.