Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

Banamex Update & Mexican Banks’ December Data; Risks of Credit Spread Erosion & Rising Credit Costs

Banorte & Mexican Banks – Peaking Returns Due to Credit Spread Erosion and Worsening Credit Risk

Banorte (GFNORTEO MM) – Triple Jeopardy in Play for 2024?

Banorte and BanBajio - October Data Trends, a First Look at 4Q 2022; Returns Pressure Building?

Mexican Banks’ October Data and Trends – Credit Spread Erosion a Bigger Threat than Credit Quality?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d / Equity Bottom-Up

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d (GFNORTEO MF)

<ul>
<li>Banorte’s solid 4Q22, and the prospect of a healthy dividend payout, have so far trumped concerns of an earnings downturn from credit spread erosion, higher opex and cost of risk</li>
<li>Bank sector data trends to November accentuate the return headwinds that we see emerging; further tightening credit spreads and a rising cost of credit, credit cards a likely leading indicator</li>
<li>BBVA Mexico generates consistent premium ROE of 25%+, investors can gain exposure through BBVA equity; we continue to be cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns</li>
</ul>


Banorte’s solid 4Q22, and the prospect of a healthy dividend payout, have so far trumped concerns of an earnings downturn from credit spread erosion, higher opex and cost of risk
Bank sector data trends to November accentuate the return headwinds that we see emerging; further tightening credit spreads and a rising cost of credit, credit cards a likely leading indicator
BBVA Mexico generates consistent premium ROE of 25%+, investors can gain exposure through BBVA equity; we continue to be cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns


Banorte 4Q22 & Mexican Banks’ November Data – Rising Risk of Credit Spread Erosion and NPL Worsening