Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

The Tabbush Report: Asian bank research and consultancy, without the noise.

Daniel Tabbush has ~30 years experience analyzing Asia-Pacific banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Japanese and Australian banks. His research and consulting focuses on global banking issues, including with banks in the US. He was the Head of Asian Bank research at the number one Asian brokerage CLSA for most of his career, overseeing coverage of 80 banks and 10 analysts in Asia-Pacific.

He has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, The Asset and Bloomberg, as well as by institutional investors focused on Asia. He continues to appear in press interviews with TVB in Hong Kong, and has appeared on CNBC in the past. He maintains an information-sharing agreement with Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics, the foremost economist in Asia-Pacific, and Tabbush was an invited speaker on Asian banks at the Independent Research Summit in Hong Kong, during years 2013 and 2014.

Daniel started his own independent bank research and consultancy in 2012, under the banner name Tabbush Report. Since 2014, he has been a member of University of California San Diego Economics Leadership Council (ELC), supporting Economic students at the University through this alumni association, and providing guidance on Economics program develoment. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from UCSD in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his family in Bangkok, and enjoys cooking, running and chess.

He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006.  More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time. 

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 
 
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-guiyang-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27479:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Guiyang Co Ltd (601997 CH)</a> has construction and development loans at 18.7% of total loans as at YE18. This is nearly 4x higher than the 5.2% average of China’s listed banks with populated data. The risk is clear and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of East Asia (23 HK)</a> made it more so. The HK-based bank indicated some weeks back that its 1H19 profit would be materially impacted by its China real estate development lending. We have of course seen this in many systems during many cycles. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/j-brian-waterhouse" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1459" rel="noopener">J. Brian Waterhouse</a> as seen this in spades in Japan banks, decades ago, while our colleague in Turkey, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ercan-uysal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2911" rel="noopener">Ercan Uysal</a>wrote a new note on these risks. While our focus in recent research is more on commercial real estate (CRE) lending, construction and development loans are also worth considering.  For Bank of Guiyang, these loans fully overshadow total equity; risk is meaningful.

Bank of Guiyang Co Ltd (601997 CH) has construction and development loans at 18.7% of total loans as at YE18. This is nearly 4x higher than the 5.2% average of China’s listed banks with populated data. The risk is clear and Bank Of East Asia (23 HK) made it more so. The HK-based bank indicated some weeks back that its 1H19 profit would be materially impacted by its China real estate development lending. We have of course seen this in many systems during many cycles. J. Brian Waterhouse as seen this in spades in Japan banks, decades ago, while our colleague in Turkey, Ercan Uysalwrote a new note on these risks. While our focus in recent research is more on commercial real estate (CRE) lending, construction and development loans are also worth considering.  For Bank of Guiyang, these loans fully overshadow total equity; risk is meaningful.

Bank of Guiyang – Nearly 4x More Construction Loans than Peers