FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The market had a glacial pace of hikes priced-in for the UK over the next three years, and the Bank of England Inflation Report largely reinforced these expectations.  Two of nine MPC members dissented from the hike and appear to reflect market expectations that inflation pressures (beyond that driven by GBP depreciation) will remain subdued, notwithstanding a 42-year low in the UK unemployment rate.  Like the USA, the market appears to feel more comfortable with rates below the central bank’s rate projections, and the immediate market response was to drop 2yr UK rates by around 7bp.  The BoE is hiking not because the UK economy is all that strong; in fact, it is significantly under-performing G7 and its trading partners’ growth. The Bank is hiking because it appears that potential output growth is equally subdued.  There appears to be limited slack in the economy, and its modest growth outlook is still expected to gradually use up what little slack may be left, increasing domestic inflation pressure.  There is elevated uncertainty over the direction of UK rates reflecting the range of potential Brexit negotiation outcomes, UK political uncertainty, and a lack of historic guideposts to assess the current state of the UK economy and how it has already reacted to Brexit uncertainty.  The GBP is already historically cheap, and its fall since the Brexit referendum is consistent with its relatively sluggish economic performance. It remains difficult to assess its future direction, but the market’s rate outlook is subdued, and it appears to have priced-in tough times ahead for the UK economy.</em></p>

The market had a glacial pace of hikes priced-in for the UK over the next three years, and the Bank of England Inflation Report largely reinforced these expectations.  Two of nine MPC members dissented from the hike and appear to reflect market expectations that inflation pressures (beyond that driven by GBP depreciation) will remain subdued, notwithstanding a 42-year low in the UK unemployment rate.  Like the USA, the market appears to feel more comfortable with rates below the central bank’s rate projections, and the immediate market response was to drop 2yr UK rates by around 7bp.  The BoE is hiking not because the UK economy is all that strong; in fact, it is significantly under-performing G7 and its trading partners’ growth. The Bank is hiking because it appears that potential output growth is equally subdued.  There appears to be limited slack in the economy, and its modest growth outlook is still expected to gradually use up what little slack may be left, increasing domestic inflation pressure.  There is elevated uncertainty over the direction of UK rates reflecting the range of potential Brexit negotiation outcomes, UK political uncertainty, and a lack of historic guideposts to assess the current state of the UK economy and how it has already reacted to Brexit uncertainty.  The GBP is already historically cheap, and its fall since the Brexit referendum is consistent with its relatively sluggish economic performance. It remains difficult to assess its future direction, but the market’s rate outlook is subdued, and it appears to have priced-in tough times ahead for the UK economy.

Bank of England Sets Glacial Hike Projections